New modelling has shown that one state will experience another surge of Covid cases as the Omicron variant takes root.
New modelling has revealed that South Australia will be hit by record Covid-19 daily case numbers.
The Omicron BA.5 version will be the driver of the spike, expected to hit within the next two months.
Chief Public Health Officer Nicola Spurrier stated that the wave would be between 4000 and 5000 cases per day.
She stated that the most recent modeling was the most uncertain because the state doesn’t have international data to base it on, and international borders are now open.
“Hospitalisations have had a smaller wave and that’s what our expectation is, but I can’t say how accurate this estimation is,” Professor Spurrier said.
“There is quite a lot of uncertainty around this model.
“The wave isn’t going to be any worse than what we’ve experienced with previous variants.
“It’s going to put some pressure on the hospital system, but it’s not going to be catastrophic.”
Premier Peter Malinauskas notified South Australians earlier in the day about the expected peak in daily cases numbers. This will occur in approximately six to eight weeks.
But he said the rise “should not be a cause for panic” and did not anticipate restrictions would change.
“In NSW, currently the new BA.5 numbers have gone up quite dramatically, to a lesser extent in Victoria and there is now a presence of the BA.5 variant in South Australia,“ Mr Malinauskas said after Tuesday’s Emergency Management Committee meeting.
“This is what we’re going to see over the course of the months and years ahead – case numbers will go up and cases will go down and we need to be equipped to handle that circumstance.
“Case numbers have come down quite dramatically (in SA). They’re currently around that 2000 number, however hospitalisations have remained about the same.”
The Premier stated that a slight increase was possible in hospitalisations due to the predicted wave.
“It won’t be dramatic, but any increase on the hospital system is something we’re concerned about, given the strain the system is under.”
Mr Malinauskas stated the variant was not thought to be more severe or more transmissible than other strains.
According to SA Health Data, 83.7 Percent of the genomes analyzed between June 1st-7 revealed that the BA.2 strain was present.
Health Minister Chris Picton said the health system was already under “extreme pressure” and all employees were ”working their guts out” with flu and Covid-19 patients.
It comes as the state has recorded 11 deaths, including one woman in her 40s, along with 2270 new infections in the past 24 hours.
There are currently more that 16,000 active cases throughout the state.
Original publication: State expecting surge in Omicron variant cases within two months